How our predictions work
A plain-English guide to where Pundict's numbers come from and how to read them.
The model in one paragraph
Pundict uses a statistical model built on several seasons of match results. It gives every team an attack rating (how many goals they tend to score) and a defence rating (how many they tend to concede), plus a home advantage. For each match, it combines the two teams' ratings to estimate how many goals each side is likely to score, then turns those expected goals into the chances of every possible scoreline.
Recent form counts more
A team's results from last month say more about them than results from two seasons ago, so the model gives recent matches more weight. It also avoids overreacting: a newly promoted team with only a few games is kept close to average until there's enough evidence to rate them properly.
Updated every day
Each morning the model is retrained with the latest results, and new fixtures get predictions as soon as they're announced.
What the numbers mean
- Home win, draw, away win: the chance of each result. They always add up to 100%.
- Predicted score: the single most likely scoreline. Because there are so many possible scores, even the most likely one usually has only around a 10–15% chance.
- Expected goals: the average number of goals the model expects each team to score in this match.
- Over 2.5 goals: the chance of three or more goals in total.
- Both teams score: the chance that each side scores at least once.
What the model doesn't know
The model works from results, so it doesn't see injuries, suspensions, team news, transfers or a new manager until they show up in results. Treat its numbers as a well-informed starting point, not a certainty. Football is unpredictable, and favourites often lose.